AGP Executive Report

SCO Security Agenda: SCO Deputy Secretary-General Ahmad Saidmurodzoda says member states are exploring a revival of the SCO Contact Group on Afghanistan, with Tajikistan having hosted the first Afghanistan consultations in four years in Dushanbe. Dushanbe Diplomacy: Cyprus Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos begins a Central Asia tour with his first official visit to Tajikistan, meeting Sirojiddin Muhriddin and discussing trade, higher education cooperation, and regional security. Pakistan–Iran Border Talks (via Dushanbe): Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni in Dushanbe to agree on tighter border security, better law-and-order coordination, and action against illegal cross-border activity. Trade Push with Tajikistan: Pakistan and Tajikistan wrapped up their 8th Joint Commission session in Dushanbe, agreeing a three-year roadmap to lift bilateral trade to $200m and expand cooperation across energy, agriculture, IT, health, education, and tourism, with CASA-1000 highlighted. Energy Planning in Tajikistan: Tajikistan published a long-term power system plan for Gorno-Badakhshan through 2050, embedding hydropower sustainability tools into project selection and development. Regional Security/UN: Kyrgyzstan won a UN Security Council seat for the first time in its history, beating the Philippines in a competitive ballot. Sports (Local Interest): India lost 1-3 to Tajikistan in a friendly in Hisor ahead of further preparations, with the teams set to meet again on June 9. Central Asia Watch: A PLA inspection team visited Russian facilities under confidence-building agreements involving China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Pakistan–Tajikistan Security Talks: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni in Tajikistan, focusing on border security, border management, and curbing illegal activity to protect regional stability. CASA-1000 Push: Pakistan and Tajikistan agreed to meet in Istanbul later this month to finalize remaining CASA-1000 electricity project terms, aiming for timely operationalization of the power exchange. Trade Roadmap to $200m: At the 8th Joint Commission session in Dushanbe, both countries set a three-year plan to lift bilateral trade to $200 million and expand cooperation across energy, agriculture, IT, health, education, and tourism. Tajikistan Power Planning: Tajikistan published a hydropower-led long-term power system plan for Gorno-Badakhshan through 2050, adding sustainability screening tools for future projects. Regional Energy Geopolitics: Russia and Uzbekistan began construction of a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan, a first for post-Soviet Central Asia, with Russian technology and financing. Central Asia Growth Outlook: The EBRD forecasts Mongolia and Central Asia growth of 5.6% in 2026 (5.3% in 2027), with risks tied to energy prices, sanctions, and slower Russia/China. Dushanbe Water Diplomacy: A major Dushanbe-hosted water conference wrapped up, reinforcing international commitments on water security and climate resilience.

Tajikistan–Pakistan Trade Push: In Dushanbe, the two countries agreed a three-year roadmap to lift bilateral trade to $200 million, setting up a joint commission work plan across energy, transport, agriculture, health, education, tourism and more, with officials also advancing a preferential trade agreement and tariff/regulation information sharing. Regional Connectivity & Security: Afghanistan used the Termez Dialogue to stress its role as a bridge between Central and South Asia, highlighting the Trans-Afghan Railway as a key transit project while warning that shared economic interests can underpin stability. Energy & Climate Politics: Tajikistan is doubling down on renewable power and regional electricity exports, with officials stressing hydropower’s dominance and the need to diversify amid glacier melt and seasonal river-flow risks. Dushanbe’s Water Diplomacy: A major international water conference in Dushanbe wrapped up, reinforcing Tajikistan’s push to keep water security and climate resilience high on the global agenda. Cross-border Crime: Authorities reported a disrupted drug trafficking network along the Tajikistan–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan route, with seizures totaling about 34.4 kg of hashish and additional opium. Russia–Tajik Rail Link: Direct Moscow–Dushanbe passenger trains are set to restart from June 21 after a six-year pause, aiming to revive long-distance travel demand across Eurasia.

EBRD Leadership in Central Asia: Uzbekistan-born British banker Nodira Mansurova was named EBRD regional head for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, based in Bishkek and set to start Sept. 1, 2026, overseeing a portfolio worth billions. Tajikistan Energy Strategy: Dushanbe is doubling down on renewables and regional electricity trade, with hydropower still powering about 95% of output while officials push diversification amid glacier melt and seasonal flow risks. Tajikistan-Pakistan Trade Push: A new joint commission agreed a three-year roadmap to lift bilateral trade to $200 million, with cooperation spanning energy, agriculture, IT, health and CASA-1000. Drug Trafficking Crackdown: Joint operations disrupted a hashish network tied to the Tajikistan–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan route, with more than 34 kg seized in Kyrgyzstan and additional seizures in Uzbekistan. Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: An international water cooperation push continues in Dushanbe, including forums and meetings focused on transboundary water management and climate resilience.

Tajikistan Energy Strategy: Dushanbe is doubling down on renewable power and regional electricity trade, with officials stressing that hydropower (about 95% of electricity) must be paired with diversification to manage glacier melt, seasonal river swings, and rising demand. Regional Finance Leadership: The EBRD named Nodira Mansurova as its next regional head for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, overseeing a portfolio worth more than €2.5 billion across the three markets. Border & Diplomacy: A Tajik envoy said a border settlement with Kyrgyzstan is a “historic breakthrough,” pointing to earlier trilateral agreements and the Khujand Declaration. Water Governance in Dushanbe: Tajikistan hosted water-focused international talks and UN-linked preparatory work for the 2026 UN Water Conference, keeping transboundary cooperation at the center of regional policy. Labor Rights: Tajikistan’s labor ministry helped a migrant in Russia recover nearly $15,000 in unpaid wages after a company settlement. Security & Illicit Trade: Authorities disrupted a drug trafficking network along the Tajikistan–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan route, seizing about 34.4 kg of hashish and opium and detaining suspects.

UN Diplomacy: Zimbabwe is on the brink of winning a non-permanent UNSC seat for 2027–2028, with elections underway after a high-tempo New York campaign by Foreign Minister Amon Murwira. Tajikistan–Kyrgyzstan Border: Tajikistan’s ambassador says the Khujand Declaration and the trilateral border treaty mark a “fully and finally resolved” dispute, with the embassies also highlighting water and energy cooperation. UNICEF & Skills: Tajikistan and UNICEF reviewed results on vocational education, with both sides pointing to a new 2027–2030 cooperation phase. Water Governance in Dushanbe: A major Asia-Pacific UN water preparatory meeting and multiple Dushanbe forums pushed glacier monitoring, transboundary water science, and women’s leadership in water policy. Rogun & EU Role: Reporting says the EU is set to become a major funder of Tajikistan’s Rogun dam as the project tests Central Asia’s shifting influence map. Labor Migration: Tajikistan’s labor ministry helped a migrant recover nearly $15,000 in unpaid wages from a Russian employer. Energy Infrastructure: Dushanbe is considering a waste-to-energy plant to cut landfill pressure and add electricity. Regional Shock: Russia’s aviation fuel export ban until Nov. 30 could ripple through Central Asian rail supply chains, including Tajikistan.

Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: Tajikistan hosted a major OSCE/UNU-INWEH/CAREC seminar on building trust and cooperation over shared waters ahead of the 2026 UN Water Conference, with a focus on using scientific data in negotiations and keeping policy inclusive. Women and Water: A parallel “Women and Water 2026” forum and a meeting of Central Asian women parliamentarians pushed gender-sensitive water management, financing, and glacier conservation as part of the same Dushanbe water agenda. Glacier Monitoring Push: Central Asian experts met in Dushanbe to coordinate glacier and cryosphere monitoring, assessment, and predictive modelling, stressing data exchange and forecasting for water, energy, and environmental security. Labor Rights for Tajik Migrants: Tajikistan’s labor ministry said a migrant in Russia recovered nearly $15,000 in unpaid wages after government intervention, urging workers to sign formal contracts. Rogun and EU Funding: Reporting says the EU may become a key funder for Tajikistan’s Rogun dam as Russia’s influence wanes, framing the project as strategic infrastructure. Energy Pressure from Russia: Russia imposed a ban on aviation fuel exports until Nov. 30, with jet fuel shipments by rail to Central Asia including Tajikistan potentially facing supply strain.

Rogun Dam & EU role: Tajikistan’s Rogun hydropower megaproject is drawing major EU funding as Russia’s influence in Central Asia faces pressure, with the dam’s scale and export ambitions underscoring its strategic weight. Water diplomacy in Dushanbe: A Dushanbe seminar on building trust over shared waters fed into the wider “Water for Sustainable Development” push, while multiple Dushanbe forums put glacier monitoring, gender-inclusive water governance, and women parliamentarians’ leadership front and center. Glacier monitoring push: Central Asian experts backed stronger scientific approaches to glacier monitoring and transboundary water forecasting, stressing data exchange and coordinated modeling as ice loss accelerates. Food & land resilience: A Khatlon pasture monitoring mission reported improved forage productivity from rotational grazing, restoration fencing, and pasture user unions—aimed at stabilizing rural livelihoods. Waste-to-energy plan: Dushanbe is considering a waste-to-energy facility with Chinese partners to cut landfill pressure and add electricity. Regional security training: OSCE border-security training in Dushanbe brought together Tajik and Uzbek border troops to tackle illicit arms trafficking linked to Afghanistan. Energy shock spillover: Russia’s ban on aviation fuel exports until Nov. 30 could tighten jet-fuel supplies for Central Asian states that rely on rail shipments, including Tajikistan. Tajik identity policy: President Rahmon ordered stronger teaching of the “ancestral alphabet” (Persian script) as part of national identity and cultural heritage efforts.

Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: A three-day OSCE/UNU-INWEH/CAREC seminar on “Promoting Cooperation over Shared Waters” wrapped up, stressing data-sharing and inclusive transboundary talks, with women’s water diplomacy networks in the mix. Women in Water Governance: Tajikistan hosted “Women and Water 2026” and a meeting of Central Asian women parliamentarians pushing gender-responsive water policy and climate resilience. Green Urban Plan: Dushanbe is weighing a waste-to-energy plant with a Chinese firm to cut landfill waste and boost electricity generation. Energy Transition: Tajik officials say renewable hydropower underpins national development and energy security, with most electricity already coming from hydro. Regional Water Pressure: Kyrgyzstan called for compensation mechanisms as glacier melt accelerates across Central Asia. Tajik–China Cooperation: Dushanbe and Beijing discussed deeper water, ecology, and green energy projects, including glacier preservation and renewable tech. Russia Fuel Shock: Russia banned aviation fuel exports until Nov. 30, a move that could tighten jet fuel supplies for Central Asian states that rely on rail imports. Tajik Identity Policy: President Rahmon ordered stronger teaching of the Persian “ancestral alphabet” in schools and universities.

Diplomacy Hub: China’s diplomatic pull is intensifying as major powers stack state visits in Beijing, underscored by a sharp jump in first-quarter trade to 11.84 trillion yuan (+15% y/y), with Tajikistan among the regional leaders engaging China. Water Security: Tajikistan hosted high-level water talks under the Dushanbe Water Process, with UN envoy Retno Marsudi stressing collective action; Tajik and China also pledged deeper ecology and water cooperation, including glacier preservation and green energy projects. Tajikistan–China Cooperation: Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin said joint “Water and Science” work will back glacier protection and biodiversity, while renewable energy and disaster monitoring plans move forward. Tajikistan–Iran Trade: The Tajikistan–Iran joint commission reported Q1 trade turnover at $119.6m (+8% y/y), with agreements signed to expand energy, water, transport, investment, and technology ties. Regional Security: Russia signed a military-technical cooperation deal with the Afghan Taliban, raising alarm over cross-border militant risks near Tajikistan; Russia’s FSB also warned ISIS-K is recruiting Central Asians via migrant networks. SCO Finance: SCO finance ministers and central bank heads met in Bishkek, discussing the SCO Development Bank and financial infrastructure, with Tajikistan pushing priority investment portfolios. Domestic Policy: President Rahmon ordered stronger teaching of the Persian “ancestral alphabet,” linking education policy to cultural identity.

Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: Tajikistan’s water conference kept the spotlight on transboundary cooperation as Kyrgyzstan called for Central Asia-wide compensation mechanisms amid glacier melt and shrinking supplies, while Tajik and Chinese officials said new “Water and Science” work targets glacier preservation, biodiversity, and green energy tech. Tajikistan–Iran Trade Boost: The Tajikistan–Iran joint commission in Dushanbe reported Q1 2026 turnover of $119.6m, up about $9m year-on-year, and signed a protocol to expand cooperation across energy, water, transport, investment, and science. Regional Finance Push (SCO): Finance ministers and central bank heads met in Bishkek to discuss strengthening SCO financial cooperation and advancing plans for an SCO Development Bank, with Tajikistan urging a unified pipeline of priority projects. Water Management Talks Beyond Central Asia: Libya’s water minister met Tajikistan’s Daler Juma to discuss dam studies, integrated water management, and environmental protection. Domestic Industry Order: President Rahmon directed authorities to build four new cement plants by 2029 to double output and cover domestic demand. Security Context: Russia’s FSB warned that ISIS-K is recruiting CIS nationals and migrants, underscoring Afghanistan’s role as a regional mobilization hub.

Dushanbe Water Diplomacy: Tajikistan hosted the 4th High-Level International Conference on “Water for Sustainable Development” (2018–2028), with UN envoy Retno Marsudi urging collective action, more investment, and faster delivery on transboundary water cooperation. Climate Pressure on Water: A new study warns Central Asia’s glaciers suffered their worst year on record in 2025, losing about 30 cubic kilometers of ice and threatening freshwater supplies for millions. Regional Water Tensions: At the same Dushanbe talks, Kyrgyz officials pressed the case that downstream states should contribute more to maintaining reservoirs and infrastructure, as glacier melt and water stress intensify. Tajik Domestic Industry: President Emomali Rahmon ordered four new cement plants to be commissioned by 2029, aiming to double output and cover domestic construction demand. Security and Extremism: Russia’s FSB said ISIS-K is recruiting from CIS countries, including Central Asian migrants inside Russia, while also citing joint counterterror cooperation with Tajikistan. Afghanistan-Russia Military Ties: Russia signed a military agreement with the Taliban in Moscow, deepening security cooperation after Russia recognized the Taliban as Afghanistan’s official government. International Connectivity: Indonesia and Tajikistan agreed to expand bilateral cooperation via a roadmap and a new consultation committee, including education, trade, and digital transformation.

UN Security Council Race: Kyrgyzstan is mounting a late, competitive bid for the UN Security Council’s 2027-2028 Asia-Pacific seat, betting it now has Central Asian backing after border disputes were settled—turning what looked like a Philippines-led contest into a real scramble. Dushanbe Water Diplomacy: Tajikistan hosted the 4th International Conference on “Water for Sustainable Development” (2018-2028), with UN water envoy Retno Marsudi stressing that no single state can solve water stress alone and calling for faster, practical implementation. Transboundary Water Politics: Central Asia’s talks in Dushanbe highlighted both cooperation—like planned summer releases from Bahri Tojik—and mounting upstream-downstream friction over reservoir upkeep and glacier-linked water security. Climate Pressure on Policy: A new regional study warns Central Asian glaciers saw their worst mass-loss year on record in 2025, threatening freshwater reserves for millions and raising the stakes for water governance. Digitalization & Trade: Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan completed their first cross-border cargo shipments using the eTIR system, a step toward faster, more digital customs and transit across the region. Security Threats: Russia’s FSB says ISIS-K is recruiting CIS-linked militants and Central Asian migrants, underscoring Afghanistan’s role as a regional extremist mobilization hub. Domestic Economy: Tajikistan plans four new cement plants by 2029 to double output and cover domestic construction demand, with thousands of jobs expected.

Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: CAREC and partners used Dushanbe’s pre-conference and parliamentary seminar to push practical transboundary water cooperation, including climate-resilience work and WasteMAP satellite monitoring of landfill methane for better policy and greenhouse-gas reporting. Climate Pressure on Water Supplies: A new study warns Central Asia’s glaciers hit their worst mass-loss year on record in 2025, threatening freshwater reserves for millions and raising the risk of water stress turning into an interstate issue. Regional Water Security Politics: At the Dushanbe Water for Sustainable Development conference, officials highlighted both cooperation—like summer reservoir release planning—and the growing upstream-versus-downstream fight over who pays to maintain reservoirs and infrastructure. Tajikistan’s Industrial Push: President Rahmon ordered four new cement plants by 2029 to double output and cover domestic demand, aiming to stabilize construction materials and create jobs. Border and Security Signals: CSTO Secretary-General said Afghanistan–Pakistan tensions are spilling into regional stability and urged stronger border security cooperation, while Afghanistan’s interior ministry claims improved coordination with neighbors including Tajikistan. Digital Economy Meets Water Limits: Indonesia warned that AI, data centers, and digital infrastructure are driving rising water demand, turning water security into a new development and governance challenge.

Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: Tajikistan hosted the 4th High-Level International Conference on “Water for Sustainable Development” (May 25–28), with regional leaders stressing cooperation even as Kyrgyzstan pressed the case that downstream states don’t pay enough to maintain reservoirs and infrastructure. Climate Pressure: A new study warns Central Asia’s glaciers suffered the worst mass-loss year on record in 2025, with about 30 cubic kilometers of ice lost—raising fears for water, farming, and hydropower. Digital Economy Meets Water Limits: Indonesia’s deputy foreign minister warned that AI, data centers, and digital industries are driving huge water demand, turning water security into a geopolitical and governance issue. Regional Security Signals: Russia’s FSB says joint work with Tajik and Uzbek services helped prevent planned terrorist attacks, while ISIS-K recruitment of Central Asian migrants remains a concern. Cross-Border Transport Modernization: Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan completed their first international cargo shipments using the eTIR system, aiming to cut paperwork and speed customs. Regional Politics Watch: Kazakhstan’s Majilis ratified a border regime agreement with Uzbekistan, setting rules for transit, border-zone activity, and incident resolution.

Counterterror Cooperation: Russia’s FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov says Uzbek and Tajik security services helped prevent five planned terrorist attacks in Russia, after earlier joint work that neutralized a Tajik-linked cell. Regional Security: The same CIS security meeting saw warnings that ISIS-Khorasan is recruiting Central Asians and migrants in Russia, raising the risk of attacks beyond Afghanistan. Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: At Tajikistan’s high-level UN water conference, Central Asian leaders traded both cooperation and pressure points, including Kyrgyzstan’s push for compensation for upstream costs tied to glacier and reservoir maintenance. Bahri-Tojik Reservoir Deal: Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan agreed on summer 2026 operating rules for the Bahri-Tojik reservoir to secure irrigation supplies for Kazakhstan’s southern districts. Cross-Border Governance: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed a border regime protocol covering transit, border-zone rules, and incident resolution mechanisms. Digital Transit: Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan completed their first cargo shipments using the eTIR system, a step toward faster, less paperwork-heavy customs procedures.